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August 22, 2005

Why Bush's Economic Poll Numbers Stink

The RWNM was at it again over the weekend, claiming the “liberal media” was filtering out the good economic news to hurt the administration. As Polipundit wrote: “I could not agree more, as I have written previously. There is going to have to be a push by those in the administration and by those in the new media to get the good economic news past the MSM filter and out to the general public. With gas prices at all time highs and rising, it is essential that the good news be reported, too, and the MSM is not going to do it on their own – not with a Republican President in office.”

No amount of PR can change this problem because people are not seeing the good economy.  I have previously written about the weak jobs situation.  In this diary, I want to show what Mr. And Mrs. Average American (MMAA) are seeing when they watch the news, shop or pay for a particular service. I will use statistics from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which are available on their website.  


First, since the beginning of the year, the average 2005 year-over-year increase in earnings is 2.65%.  That means the MMAA is making 2.65% more this year than at the same time last year.  Not great, but not horrible.  However, over the same time, the average 12-month year-over-year change in inflation is 3.01%.  So, after inflation MMAA is in fact making less money than last year.  Now, I would love to tell you I am personally aware of the overall inflation rate of all the products I buy.  I'm not.  However, I am aware of the increases of individual purchases.  So, let's look at the increasing cost of some items that make-up the consumer price index.  


Suppose the MMAA wants to drive somewhere.  They drive down to the gas station or convenience store and fill-up the tank. Well, on average, the total 2005 year-over-year increase of transportation costs is 5.07% -- almost twice the increase in average earnings.  So, from the individual's perspective, transportation costs are taking a larger percentage of their average take-home pay.


Suppose the MMAA gets sick.  They go to the doctor and get a prescription.  The average total 2005 year-over-year increase in the cost of their medical care is 4.27% -- over 1.5 times faster than their average increase in earnings.  


Suppose MMAA go to the store to get some food.  The average 2005 year-over-year increase in food and beverage prices is 2.55% -- just under the increase in MMAA average increase in pay. While this situation is not terrible, it doesn't exactly build confidence.


The increases in these three expenses, when looked at individually, would cause anyone to be concerned about the economy.  I am sure that most people reading this have had similar experiences.  MMAA does not feel they can get ahead. In fact, from the perspective of individual necessary expenses, they are falling behind.  That sensation breeds economic insecurity.  And there is no amount of PR that can change that perception.

Posted by Hale Stewart at August 22, 2005 04:34 PM | Permalink

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