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August 31, 2005

Dept. of Energy Report: Oil Basically a Big Mess

Every week, the Department of Energy publishes a report called “This Week in Petroleum”. In the latest issue, the DOE explains the depths of the problems facing the refinery situation in Louisiana.

Unfortunately for many oil consumers, we will soon see what happens when a supply shock occurs when prices are already at high levels. But the extent to which analysts’ fears are realized will largely depend on how long petroleum infrastructure remains offline.
Oil production platforms, import terminals, pipelines, and refineries were affected as a result of Hurricane Katrina, whose path took it directly over many production facilities in the Gulf of Mexico as well as many refineries in Louisiana, as well as one major refinery in Mississippi. As a result, crude oil prices and petroleum product prices have spiked over the last two trading days. However, unlike Hurricane Ivan, which was a major hurricane that affected oil facilities last September and had a more lasting impact on crude oil production in the Gulf of Mexico, it appears that Hurricane Katrina may have a more lasting impact on refinery production and the distribution system.

There are several factors currently inhibiting refinery production. First, employees that were evacuated from their homes need to return to work.

Another factor impacting refinery operations is the loss of electrical power

Finally, refiners will need to perform damage assessments to determine what, if any, repairs are needed. Some refineries reportedly have been flooded, which could do serious damage to some of their units. The extent to which flooding may have caused damage to refineries will be a key barometer that market analysts will be waiting to hear in the coming days.

I believe this morning, the Governor of Louisiana called for an evacuation of all people remaining in New Orleans. She mentioned the basic problem they face is where to put people. In short, people are spread out all over, so finding them may be difficult.

I would assume the oil companies probably have knowledge of where their respective employees are. However, Katrina has also affected communications facilities, so simply contacting employees could be a problem. Then there is the issue of getting employees to and from various places. While the companies do have strong transportation infrastructures, it will still take time.

Then there is damage assessment. I am no expert on the effects of flooding on an oil refinery. However, several pictures I have seen showed refineries more or less underwater. This can’t be good. I would hazard a guess that at least one facility has experienced some kind of major damage, simply based on the laws of probability.

I would guess the refineries’ electrical power will be a top priority because of the national implications. Again, however, there is the issue of time. The longer the refineries stay down, the dire the situation becomes.

In short, it’s basically a big mess that could really hurt in the short-term.

Posted by Hale Stewart at 01:02 PM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack

Katrina Refugees Will Go to Astrodome

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/katrina_astrodome;_ylt=AqdlQSK.52VKV.UpfnYggLWs0NUE

I'm trying to get through to the Red Cross to find out about volunteering and will post the information here. In the meantime, gather up food, sleeping bags, pillows, clothes and other supplies such as toiletries to donate.

Update: Donations are being handled through the Salvation Army or call (713) 694-5688. Make sure to drop off your donations. If they are picked up by the Salvation Army, they will go into the Thrift Store system.

At some point, they may accept donations directly at the Dome. To volunteer with the Red Cross, call (713) 313-5480.

Sign up to volunteer at the Dome at www.harriscountycitizenscorp.com/volunteer. Thanks Stan for pointing this out!

Note (9/1/05 1pm):The Volunteer page for the Harris County Citizens Corp is not working. Keep checking back.

Posted by Lyn Wall at 09:47 AM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack

August 30, 2005

Buddy Spell - One of Cindy's Lawyers Needs Help Finding 7 Year Old Daughter in Louisiana

This is truly heartbreaking. Buddy and Annie are good friends of mine. If anyone has any resources that could help them get information on their daughter, please email me. Or if you have solid information that can help, call the number listed.

Buddy Spell is one of Cindy Sheehan's lawyers. He and his wife are here at Camp Casey helping to make this action as smooth as possible.

When they left Louisiana they left their 7-year old daughter, Sarah, with a friend in Washington Parish. (In LA, counties are called "Parishes")

Due to the hurricane, they have lost all contact with their friend and they fear the worst. The Spells are frantic for solid information about the state of Washington Parrish or their daughter.

If you have solid information about what is going on in Washington Parrish, please call 612-578-0130. This is the cell-phone number of Alex, a close friend of the Spells. I have full permission from the family, mods and Admins to post this personal information.

The reason I have to post a telephone number is because internet access out of Camp Casey is spotty at best. Due to the nature of this emergency, he can't spend time monitoring his PM box and emails.

Do not call the number unless you have solid, first hand information about the state of Washinton Parrish or Sarah Spell.

Posted by Lyn Wall at 07:45 PM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack

Bring Them Home Now Tour Thursday

As promised, here is the information on Cindy's appearance in Houston. It turns out that she will only be here Thursday night. Check back for more information on helping with housing and food for the tour. There may be other events with the rest of the folks on the tour Friday, so stay tuned:

Cindy Sheehan and the Bring Them Home Now Tour bus arrive in Houston on Thursday, Sep. 1. See http://bringthemhomenowtour.org/ (although everything there is not completely up to date).

We have arranged a special public welcome for them on Thursday evening from 6:30 to 8:30 P.M. at:

Resurrection Metropolitan Community Church
http://www.resurrectionmcc.org/
2025 West 11th Street, just west of T.C. Jester
Houston TX 77008-6320
map: http://tinyurl.com/9hqfn

This is inside the 610 Loop, north of I-10 and west of Shepherd. (This is the same place where Congresswoman Sheila Jackson Lee held her town hall meeting last Thursday evening.)
This is two large spaces. The church sanctuary seats 880, and the gym/church hall has chairs for close to the same number of people. In addition, there is a large parking lot and space in the adjacent residential neighborhood for overflow parking. If the weather is bad and the crowd is slow coming in, we can direct everyone to the sanctuary. When it starts filling up, we can direct the others to the gym/church hall. I hope we fill up both.

Cindy Sheehan will need to leave around 7:30 pm to catch a plane to her next city. That's why we're starting early (6:30). However, the others in the bus tour (veterans, MFSO and GSFP members) will also be part of the program and can continue after she leaves.

Posted by Lyn Wall at 12:18 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Cindy Sheehan's Bus Tour: Houston Details

Here is the updated information on Cindy Sheehan and the Bring Them Home Now Bus Tour. The bus will arrive in Houston on Thursday, September 1, 2005. Bill Crosier from PAA and many others are working hard to organize a big welcoming event for Cindy and the military families and veterans on the tour. The event will be on Thursday evening from 6:30 to 8:30 PM at the Resurrection Metropolitan Community Church at 2025 West 11th Street, just west of T.C. Jester. Find a map here.

Admission is free. Donations to cover the cost of hall rental would be appreciated. Please come show your support for Cindy's noble cause!

The Bring Them Home Now Bus Tour has a website with general information about the tour's goals and itinerary. Visit the site here.

Posted by at 11:57 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack

"The city of New Orleans is devastated."

"We probably have 80 percent of our city under water; with some sections of our city, the water is as deep as 20 feet...

"Both airports are under water. The twin spans are destroyed. The yacht club is burned and destroyed."

-- New Orleans mayor Ray Nagin, from an interview with WWL late last night

Mayor Nagin also said that it is possible that the highrise bridge in east New Orleans could be unstable. "All of Slidell, and most of Metairie is under water". Nagin also stated that "there was no clear path in and out of New Orleans," and that I-10 is under water.

CNN also quoted a spokesperson from the hospital associated with Tulane University in downtown, who said that they were moving all of the patients from the hospital due to water standing six feet deep in the first floor and rising at the rate of one inch every five minutes. She said white water was pouring down Canal Street (which would be from the breach in the levee at the 17th St. canal at Lake Ponchartrain).

Nagin: "An oil tanker has run aground and oil is leaking from it. Hundreds of 9th Ward residents have been rescued from the roofs of their homes. Undoubtedly hundreds of people throughout the city will have lost their lives."

Posted by Guest Blogger PDiddie at 05:37 AM | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBack

August 29, 2005

Cloak and Dagger at Camp Casey

Amy Branham, our Houston area member of Gold Star Families for Peace, has asked for help in finding out more about a right wing talk radio operative who has gone "undercover" to spy on conversations at Camp Casey in Crawford. The wannabe espionage artist seems to have come up with very little incriminating info on Cindy Sheehan and the peace movement, but he and Ankarlo at KLIF are trying mightily to emulate the distortion and hyperbole of their patron saint, Rush Limbaugh. Listen here, and look below the fold for more details.

Amy Branham has asked:

Does anyone know about this and what's being said, recorded, etc.? It wouldn't be surprising in the least because the pro-war people are getting so desperate. I don't have podcast capabilities, but I know someone out there does!

Hugs, Amy

Amy then offers this snippet from DailyKos, the original source of the warning about the spy:

KLIF has a 'spy' at Camp Casey, he's taping conversations and posting them on KLIF's podcast page:

"570 KLIF's Ankarlo Mornings' spy, Michael, reports from deep within the bowels of the Cindy Sheehan camp in Crawford, Texas. Michael has gone undercover. And man, does he have some stories."

I don't have podcast capabilities so I don't know what's on them, one of the posters over at Eschaton listened and doesn't think they have much of value on them. But I thought you might like to know this is happening.

by pixie on Sat Aug 27th, 2005 at 21:45:41 PDT

Having listened to Michael the Spy on the podcast page, I doubt that his falsified "revelations" will make the cover of Time or Newsweek: that Cindy only grieves for the TV cameras and that no high-profile Democrats have shown up at Camp Casey because they are clandestinely "pulling the strings behind the scenes" for election gains in 2006 and 2008. (Hey, fellas at KLIF, you might want to consult a professional about your tendencies to "project" your own motives onto others.)

Then, when Michael reports that a Camp Casey participant has admitted that Camp Casey is "bigger than Cindy," he and Ankarlo go to extreme lengths to paint this as meaning "bigger" in the sense of raising money and winning elections for Democrats. Of course, Cindy herself has repeatedly stated that the Camp Casey movement is bigger than Cindy, bigger in the sense of ending a war based on lies. Surely Michael and Ankarlo know this, but they cannot admit on air that there is any cause bigger than defending the indefensible Chickenhawk-in-Chief who landed us in this quagmire.

So, folks, listen to the podcast at the link given above, and if you recognize Michael's voice, or can offer other useful info, let us know. Unlike Valerie Plame, this laughable "agent" deserves to have his cover blown!

Posted by at 03:44 PM | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBack

Why the Record Debt Level is So Bad

In general, there are two kinds of debt. “Good” debt is used to increase the borrower’s productive capacity in some way, meaning it is used to build a factory or house, or make an investment where the expected return is higher than the interest paid. “Bad” debt is used to maintain a standard of living; there is no fundamental increase in the underlying productive capabilities of the borrower.

Americans have accumulated a huge amount of debt over the last 10 years. The RWNM continually argues this is “good” debt. However, they are wrong. The article below simply breaks down what type of debt Americans have. After the breakdown, I will explain why most of this debt is “bad” debt and why the RWNM is wrong in their classification of the debt we have.

Low interest rates, especially since the end of the 2001 recession, have fed the debt beast at home, allowing American consumers to accumulate nearly $11 trillion in debt as they buy more homes, more cars, more clothes, more dinners out. At the same time, foreign investment in the United States is helping to keep the dollar strong, which holds down prices on those imports Americans covet

Americans have accumulated total debt nearly equivalent to the total US GDP. Debt as a percentage of household assets is at a record level, and stands around 18% of total household assets. That means that nearly 20% of all money flowing from households goes to a debt payment of some sort.

Outstanding balances on credit cards have risen to more than $800 billion, or some $7,200 per U.S. household. It's more than double the indebtedness of a decade ago -- and it doesn't include an additional $1.3 trillion in debt for cars, appliances and personal loans.

A mere ten years ago, the total amount of credit card debt was half today’s level. Considering the high interest rates involved, this increase in total debt could lead to problems should the owners of individual debt be unable to make their payments.

Americans have taken on more than $8.8 trillion in mortgages to buy homes, up an astounding 42 percent since the 2001 recession. And rapidly rising prices in recent years have made many homeowners feel wealthy, so they've ramped up day-to-day spending.

The increase in mortgages can be healthy, as it could imply an increase in home ownership. This in fact has happened over the last 5 years – home ownership is at record levels.

However, the increased use of more exotic mortgage debt (ARMs and Interest only Loans) over the last year and a half could lead to problems. ARMS are susceptible to rising interest rates; payments increase as interest rates increase. Interest-only loans are viable for some borrowers. But the anecdotal information in the financial press indicates these loans are used increasingly to attract first-time homebuyers who could otherwise not afford a house.

In addition, home equity as a percentage of market value stands near a record low, and has been dropping for the last 10-15 years. This indicates home purchases are not increasing their actual ownership of their houses, but instead are more often than not cashing out their equity in the form of home equity loans.

OK, so the US consumer has doubled his credit card debt and increased his mortgage debt by 50%. Is this good or bad debt?

A majority is bad debt. How do I come to this conclusion? Two macro-level statistics indicate the US consumer is using debt to maintain a standard of living, not improve it.

First, according to statistics available from the Bureau of Labor Services, wages have increased at a compounded, inflation-adjusted rate of .29% over the last 5 years. Put this figure together with the increase in credit card and mortgage debt and you come to the conclusion that debt and its respective payments now represents a larger percentage of the individual’s total income. Proving this conclusion is the record level of debt as a percentage of personal assets, which has increased from roughly 15% in 2000 to roughly 18% in 2004.

Secondly, the US savings rate is now at 0%, and has been declining for the last 20+ years. If the debt were “good” debt, it would manifest itself in an income stream that would accumulate in either wages or accumulated savings. In essence, the debt’s benefits would accrue this year (in your current income), or would be put away for use in a future year (savings). Because wages have been stagnant for the last 5 years, the only other place for a benefit to appear is savings, which have decreased.

The debt level is used to maintain a standard of living, not create a better standard of living. As a result, the debt level is “bad.” It has not increased the individual consumers current income, nor his savings. In effect, it has not created anything. Instead, consumers have used their credit to buy things that don’t create additional income or provide for future income.

Link

Posted by Hale Stewart at 11:48 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack

August 28, 2005

Katarina and the Oil Market Part 1

Crude oil soared to a record above $70 a barrel in New York after Hurricane Katrina forced companies including Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. to shut operations in the Gulf of Mexico. Oil had its biggest gain in 29 months while gasoline and heating oil reached records as Katrina, one of the most powerful storms to hit the U.S., crossed the Gulf, source of 30 percent of the country's oil output and 24 percent of its natural gas.

``Forecasters are saying Katrina could do more energy damage than any storm in recent years,'' Jason Schenker, an economist with Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina, said before the start of trading.

``It's not just that there's going to be outages for the next couple of days. With shutdowns and damage at platforms and refineries, the bullish impact could be felt for the rest of the year.''

For those of you who watched the F/X show on an oil collapse, a hurricane that hit Louisiana started the upward price spiral. The area around Louisiana is crucial to a large amount of US oil operations.

Central to oil trading this summer is the incredibly tight supply and demand situation. Refineries are operating over 90% capacity.

Throughout the summer, oil prices have spiked whenever a refinery has gone down to non-routine maintenance. This is because traders are concerned about the refining industries inability to meet growing global demand.

As of now, there is no physical damage to the southeastern oil industry. Traders are bidding up oil on what might happen, not what has happened. Oil’s recent price spike is to be expected in this situation.

This will be a news heavy market for the next few days. Any indication of physical damage to the Louisiana oil infrastructure will probably send prices higher.

If you want to keep up on the latest news, I highly recommend Bloomberg television. If you don’t get it from your cable channel, you can watch it on the web via streaming media from their website.

I sit in front of a computer screen watching the markets during the day. If something drastic happens, I’ll get it out as fast as I can.


Link

Posted by Hale Stewart at 09:38 PM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack

Bankruptcy Bill + Housing Bubble = Disaster

Under the new bankruptcy regulations, homeowners will no longer necessarily be able to hand the keys to the bank and move on. Lenders will, in many cases, have the option of coming after them for virtually everything else they've got — income, money in bank accounts and other assets.

Homeowners who have refinanced may have unwittingly put themselves at the greatest risk. State regulations will still offer financial protections for buyers who have their original mortgages.

The reason homeowners who have refinanced are at risk is because state law does not allow banks to go after the assets or income of the holder of an original mortgage following a foreclosure. But borrowers are often asked to waive those protections when they refinance — and many do so without even knowing it.

Here’s how foreclosures use to work. A borrower (here a homeowner) would no longer be able to make payments. After falling behind, the bank would send a certain number of notices giving the homeowner the opportunity to catch-up on his payments. If the homeowner failed to do so, the lender would foreclose. The lender would have title to the house and would usually sell it in an attempt to recoup some of the losses.

What’s important to remember about the old process is lenders usually only had the ability to go after one of the borrower’s assets – namely, their house. In essence, the bank bore the risk of market devaluation. Now, the bank can sue the consumer for any difference between the sale price and the total amount of the debt.

Here’s an example that is oversimplified to illustrate the difference between the old and new arrangements. Homeowner (H) obtains a $500,000 mortgage. Right off the bat, H has problems and can’t make payments, so the bank forecloses on the loan. Suppose the bank sold the house for $400,000. Under the old rules, the bank would usually bear the entire risk of the loss – here, $100,000. After selling the house, the bank would not have the legal right to sue the homeowner for the difference.

Now that situation has changed. Using the same example from the preceding paragraph, the bank now has the legal right to sue the homeowner for the remaining balance of the loan – here, $100,000. This makes an incredibly bad situation much worse. People stop paying loans because they are in economically difficult times. Instead of giving the consumer some breathing space, the new bill allows the bank to not only sell the consumers main asset, but to attach a judgment on the consumers other assets. This further burdens the consumer and makes it far more difficult to get out of a bad financial situation.

Now, let’s play this out on a national scale to see what happens. Suppose the housing bubble starts to burst. As a result, people lose confidence in the economy and start to spend less. Because consumer spending is responsible for 2/3 of US GDP, the economy starts to slow. Unemployment starts to increase. As a result of unemployment, foreclosures increase. Because housing prices are decreasing, banks selling houses at foreclosure auctions don’t recoup the entire loan amount. Now, the bank initiates a legal preceding against their previous borrower to recoup the difference between the loan amount and the amount the bank received at the foreclosure sale. The consumer – who is already unemployed, now gets burdened with a judgment for the difference.

Welcome to the indentured servant world of the Bush administration.

LINK

Posted by Hale Stewart at 02:22 PM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack

Another Day at Camp Casey

Weston Hotel LotYesterday was another amazing day at Camp Casey. By the time we arrived at the Peace House, the parking lot was full and the counter demonstrators had filled up the streets of Crawford. We outnumbered them by far - more than 2000 people from all over the state and country were at Camp Casey yesterday. We were diverted to the Weston Hotel who graciously allowed us to use their parking lot and facilities. A volunteer named Bridgette and her mom shuttled us to Camp Casey 2. They are former Houston residents.

The first thing I noticed was that empty boots from the Eyes Wide Open exhibit had been added to Arlington West. Jim Rine (San Jacinto Veterans Brigade), who had brought the flags of the fallen soldiers last week was there again. Later I ran into him talking quietly to an Iraq War vet and his wife who were Bush supporters. I don't think he changed their minds, but he did a great job of making them see that we really do support the troops.

Arlington West

There was live music and I could hardly believe my ears. That just had to be Joan Baez singing! And it was. She has been at Camp Casey every day since Monday. I couldn't help wishing that more prominent folks - politicians and celebrities alike had been willing to stand with Cindy.

CindyWhen Cindy spoke, everyone stopped and listened. She was as eloquent as ever and spoke of her new love for the great state of Texas. For the critics reading this, when you see her and hear her speak, it is apparent that she is not some puppet of the extreme left, but a mom, who's heart has been broken and who wants to do everything she can to prevent other moms from sharing her pain. That's all. This is about bringing our young people home from a no-win situation - as soon and as safely as possible.

Why not answer Cindy?Several of our Democratic Underground friends from around the state had already settled in at a table. The tent was so full of people it was hard to move around. My daughter went off in search of buttons and souveniers. She was especially drawn to the Veterans for Peace table where we all picked up t-shirts with photos of Arlington West on the front and this quote by Margaret Mead on the back:

Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it is the only thing that ever has.

Joan led the group singing "We Shall Overcome". Someone I'd never met before grabbed my hand. Everyone was holding hands and singing in a peaceful resolve that the Bush administration will have to reckon with sooner or later.

Mackenzie (my daughter), PDiddie and the Mrs. were disappointed not to have had a chance to see the Peace House. They were able to catch a ride there with Kelly who was driving a shuttle and had stopped by Camp Casey 2 for a lunch break. While they were gone, I found my friend Nan, who had driven up by herself because our car was full. She had gotten the last parking space at the Peace House and pitched her tent in the last available space at Camp Casey 2. She already was wearing a Stand with Cindy t-shirt and was settle in. Like everyone else, she was just thrilled to be there.

bannerSome of the counter protestors decided to drive by while we stood by the road with a couple of huge banners Joan Baez(apologies for the crudeness of the composite photo)

Joan Baez came on again and sang "Joe Hill" and "The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down". I managed to get within a few feet of the stage. Awesome.

I found Houston's Amy Branham. She was talking to another Gold Star Mom who had gotten an email from a man that has been camped out in London protesting the war since it began and was trying to get the message to Cindy. I also ran into Nadia McCaffery and Jeff Norman of US Tour of Duty who had spoken at Thursday's town hall meeting. I thanked them both. They both told me how surprised and pleased they were with the warmth and support they had received Thursday and marveled that one of the policewomen working the event had held a candle during the prayer. Jeff wanted to know if US Tour of Duty should make a return appearance in Houston this fall. Of course I was thrilled and offered to facilitate any way I can.

Ruth and I started talking to Cole Miller, who founded NoMoreVictims.Org, who is truly doing God's work:

NMV was founded in September 2002. We work to find medical sponsorships for war- injured Iraqi children and to forge ties between the children, their families and communities in the United States. We believe one of the most effective means of combating militarism is to focus on direct relief to its victims. We are committed to developing information and strategies that empower local communities to engage in direct aid and advocacy.

William and CindyPlease visit Cole's site and support his efforts to both put faces to the tragic results of the Iraq invasion and improve the lives of those affected.

We were all looking forward to seeing Air America Radio's Randi Rhodes, but had to leave before she arrived. I learned later that she'd been at the Peace House later in the day but don't know if she made it out to Camp Casey. I hope she did.

I ran into HCDP volunteer Beth Zeffert who had her granddaughter with her but wanted to volunteer to wash dishes so I too Christine while her husband Steve got something to eat and had a chance to wander around and take some pictures.

William, a 14 year-old who had been adopted by our Austin friends had brought a T-shirt we all signed. He was able to present it to Cindy.

I got a chance to give Cindy a hug. I promised her a huge crowd for her stop in Houston on Friday. Help keep me honest. I will post details of Friday's events as soon as I get them.

See more excellent photos by Ruth here.

Posted by Lyn Wall at 12:20 PM | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBack

Proof: Interest Rate Cuts, Not Tax Cuts, Create Growth

The Republicans claim that tax cuts spur economic growth. The historical evidence presented below indicates interest rates cuts — not supply-side tax cuts -- have long been the primary engine for economic growth.

The National Bureau of Economic Research – the government agency that prepares economic information for the Federal Reserve policy makers -- has identified 8 recessions since 1955. Below, I identify each recession, when the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, and the quarterly GDP percentage growth during and after the recession.

August 1957 – April 1958

The percentage change in GDP was 4%, -4.2%, -10.4%, 2.4% and 9.8%for the third quarter 1957 through the third quarter 1958, respectively. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times during the recession. On November 19, 1957, the Fed cut rates from 3.50% to 3%. On January 24, 1958 the Fed cut rates from 3% to 2.75%. On March 7, 1958, the Federal Reserve cut rates from 2.75% to 2.25%. In total, the fed cut interest rates 125 basis points. Three months after the last cut, the economy grew 2.4%, and six months after the recession the economy grew 9.8%.

April 1960 – February 1961

The percentage change in GDP for the second quarter of 1960 to the first quarter of 1961 was
–2%, .6%. –5.1% and 2.4%, respectively. The Federal Reserve cut rates one time during this recession, on August 11, 1960 from 3.5% to 3%, for a total rate cut of 50 basis points. 6 months after the Fed cut rates, the economy grew by 2.4%.

December 1969-November 1970.

The percentage change in GDP was –1.9%, -.7%, .8%, 3.6% and 11.6% for the fourth quarter of 1969 through the first quarter of 1970. The Fed cut rates 4 times during the recession. On November 11, 1970, the fed cut rates from 6% to 5.75%. On December 4, 1970, the Fed cut rates from 5.75% to 5.5% and on January 21, 1971, the fed cut rates from 5.25% to 5%. In total, the fed cut rates 100 basis points. The economy started to grow in the quarter after the first two rate cuts.

November 1973 – March 1975

The percentage change in GDO was 3.9%, -3.4%, 1.2%, -3.8%, -1.6%, 4.7%, 3% and 6.9% for the fourth quarter of 1973 through the second quarter of 1975. The Fed cut rates four times: On December 12, 1974 from 8% - 7.7%, on January 10, 1975 from 7.75% to 7.25%, on February 5, 1975 from 7.25% and on March 10, 1975 from 6.75% to 6.25%. In total, the Fed cut rates 175 basis points. The economy started to grow 4 months after the first rate cuts.

This is the last recession before “supply-side” economics became part of the Republican lexicon. Notice the direct relationship between interest rate cuts and economic growth. When the Fed cuts rates, the economy grows. The reason is simple. Lower interest rates mean it is cheaper to borrow money. If money is cheaper, more people will borrow money for corporate projects, houses and the like. From a supply and demand perspective, the cheaper good increases demand for that good. That is simple economics.

At this point, supply-side economics enters the political dialog. Republicans begin to claim that tax cuts created growth. However, as occurred before in all economic slowdown, interest rate cuts occurred during the recession. There is no reason to believe the previously established relationship between interest rate cuts and economic growth suddenly disappeared.

January 1980 – July 1980

The percentage change in GDP was 1.3%, -7.8%, -.7% and 7.6% for the first through fourth quarter 1980, respectively. The Fed cut rates twice during the recession: On May 5, 1980 they cut rates from 13%-12%, and on June 13 1980, the Fed cut rates from 12% to 11%. The Fed cut rates a total of 200 basis points during the recession. The economy started to grow 4-6 months after the last rate cut.

July 1981 – November 1982.

The percentage change in GDO was –3.1%, 4.9%, -4.9%, -6.4%, 2.2%, -1.5%, .4% and 5% for the second quarter 1981 through the first quarter 1983, respectively. The Fed cut rates 7 times during the recession: On November 11, 1981 from 14-13%, on December 4, 1981 from 13%-12%, on July 7 1982 from 12% - 11.5%, on August 2, 1982 from 11.5% to 11%, on August 16 from 11 – 10.5%, on August 27 from 10.5% - 10%, and on October 12 from 10 – 9.5%. Notice the large cuts that occurred in August when the Fed cut rates 150 basis points. In total, the Fed cut 450 basis points during the recession.

It is important to remember the severity of this recession, which was caused in part by Paul Volcker’s huge rate increases to wring inflation out of the system. These large cuts in August indicated to the economy the Fed was comfortable with the amount of inflation eliminated from the system. As a result, the economy started to grow two quarters after this string of interest rate cuts.

July1990-March 1991

The percentage change in GDP was 1%, 0%, -3%, -2% and 2.6% for the second quarter of 1990 through the second quarter of 1991. The Fed cut rates twice: On December 26, 1990, from 7% to 6.50% and on February 13, from 6.50% to 6%. The Fed cut rates a total of 100 basis points. The economy started to grow 4 months after the first rate cut.

March 2001 – November 2001

The percentage change in GDP was -.5%, 1.2%, -1.4%, 1.6% and 2.7% for the first quarter of 2001 to the first quarter of 2002, respectively. The Fed cut rates 10 times: On January 10, 2001 from 6%-5.5%, on February 7, 2001 from 5.5% - 5%, on March 28, 2001 from 5% - 4.5%, on April 25, 2001 from 4.50% - 4%, on June 6, from 4% - 3.5%, on July 4, 2001 from 3.5% to 3.25%, on August 29, 2001 from 3.25% - 3%, on September 26, 2001 from 3% to 2.5%, on October 10, 2001 from 2.5% to 2% and on November 14 from 2% to 1.5%. In total, the Fed cut rates 450 basis points during the recession. The economy grew 2.7% in the quarter following the November rate cut.

Notice how the direct relationship between interest rate cuts and economic growth remain intact. The “supply-siders” never give the rate cuts credit, despite the clear relationship. This relationship existed long before “supply-side” economics, as all the recoveries before 1980 clearly demonstrate.

Posted by Hale Stewart at 08:42 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack

August 27, 2005

Cindy Sheehan Tour Coming to Houston 9/2

Cindy Sheehan's bus tour will be in Houston on Friday. Let's give her a big welcome! If you can help with housing for some of the folks on the tour or want to host the event, go to

I'm leaving for Crawford in a minute. I'll see what I can find out about hosting and plans.

Posted by Lyn Wall at 06:31 AM | Permalink | Comments (16) | TrackBack

August 26, 2005

What Happens if Housing Busts?

Thomas Helbling, deputy chief of the world economic studies division at the International Monetary Fund in Washington, tracked the housing market histories of 14 industrialized nations for the period from 1970 to 2002, finding 75 home-price cycles.

Bull markets typically lasted a bit less than three years, with prices climbing by a cumulative 11 percent when adjusted for inflation. Bear markets were about one year long and prices fell about 6 percent, the study found.

In boom times, defined by Helbling as the top 25 percent of periods of rising prices, prices climbed for about four years with an average increase in house values of 32 percent. Housing market busts also persisted for about four years, with prices declining by an average of 27 percent.

In the past four years, the average price of a U.S. home resale has climbed by almost 38 percent, according to data compiled by the National Association of Realtors. The average price of a single-family U.S. home surged to a record $266,100 last month, the association said earlier this week

This finding is consistent with several other studies of the US housing market. The FDIC conducted one in February of this year, and National City Corp. released a second in mid-August. In addition, Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan announced his concern in his most recent policy statement.

The Right Wing Noise Machine (RWNM) has been stating there is no housing bubble, or there are a few markets that are experiencing a bubble, but people shouldn’t be concerned. The above information indicates otherwise.

So, what happens if the bubble does bust?

The US could experience a serious economic slowdown.

For the last five years, two macro-level economic events have conspired against the US consumer. The first is a lack of real wage growth. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the average earnings increase from 2000-2004 was 3.86%, 3.22%, 3.12%, 1.71% and 2.39% respectively. However wages have to be compared to inflation to determine the real rate of wage growth. For the same years, annual inflation was 3.4%, 2.8%, 1.6%, 2.3% and 2.7% respectively. When inflation is subtracted from wages, overall wage growth becomes .46%, .42%, 1.52%, -.59% and-.31% respectively for 2000-2004.

So wages are not growing after inflation. However, the economy started to grow again in the first quarter of 2003, when GDP started to pick-up. If people aren’t making any more money after inflation, how do they afford new purchases? With a ton of debt. Look at these charts, courtesy of Prudent Bear. You will notice that mortgage debt, household debt as a percentage of assets, and household debt as a percentage of GDP have skyrocketed since 2000 and current stand at record levels. In other words, Americans have supplemented their stagnant wages by using debt to make their consumer products purchases.

And this is where the final piece to the puzzle falls into place. Consumer spending represents about 2/3 of US GDP. For the last 5 years, debt – not rising wages nor purchases from savings – has fueled consumer spending.

So, housing prices start to drop. People start to spend less because they are concerned about the overall health of the economy. As a result, 2/3 of the US economy starts to slow down because US consumers aren’t purchasing consumer goods.

Slumping property values can wreck an economy. ``Housing price busts in industrial countries were associated with substantial negative output gaps, as real gross domestic product growth decreases noticeably,'' Helbling wrote in his study. ``On average, the output level three years after the beginning of a housing price bust was about 8 percent below the level that would have prevailed with the average growth rate during the three years up to the bust.''

Several other problems will contribute to this problem. The first is the new bankruptcy laws, which make it harder to declare bankruptcy. Instead of having the opportunity to start again, people will be forced into indentured servitude to credit card companies, banks and mortgage companies. The use of exotic mortgage products such as ARMS and Interest only loans will increase the number of foreclosures. Finally, the US deficit will hamper the government’s ability to add fiscal stimulus into the US economy.


In short, the worst case scenario is, well, pretty damn scary.

LINK

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Last Night's Town Hall Meeting on Iraq

I'm so proud of Houston! Sheila Jackson Lee hosted an amazing Town Hall Meeting last night, followed by a candle light vigil and prayer. My estimate is that there were about 300 people there.

First she introduced Jeff Norman of US Tour of Duty. Please visit their web site and support them. After reminding us that Camp Casey isn't about Cindy Sheehan, it's about a lot of families and veterans who have questions, he showed a video of Dolores Kesterson describing her unsatisfactory meeting with President Bush. You can watch the video online at http://www.ustourofduty.org/ as well as the next video of Gold Star dad Bill Mitchell and Veterans For Peace's Tim Goodrich attempting to confront Tommy Franks following his appearance at an elementary school in California.

Then Cindy called. She told us that the vigil at Camp Casey will help "bring our troops home way faster than they would have if we didn't come here August 6."

Mel Goodman, a former CIA agent who left the government after 42 years of service spoke and showed a portion of the DVD "Uncovered - The Whole Truth About the Iraq War." The turning point for his was the October 2002 when the intelligence community gave up the good fight. National Intelligence Estimate provided to the Senate. According to Mel, the justification it provided for war against Iraq was a total fabrication. He lamented the corruption of Colin Powell and pointed out that every assertion in the basis for war was false. Regime change has always made bad situations worse (1953 Iran, 1973 Chile and of course Vietnam).

Then Joan Baez called. She sang Let Nobody Turn Me Around while Sheila's staff passed out comment forms for her to take back to Congress. Then we all joined Joan to sing America the Beautiful.

Amy Alison a veteran who achieved Conscientious Objector status spoke next. She advises other military personnel seeking CO status and told us of a soldier she is advising who's contract was almost up until it was extended for 30 years.

Next was Dr. Sanders Anderson, an associate professor at the Mickey Leland - Barbara Jordan School of Pubic Affairs and Vietnam veteran.

Gold Star Mom Nadia McCaffery followed. She is a native of France who has been actively opposing the war since she lost her son. She has traveled to Jordan and met with relatives of Iraq's fallen and was in Fallujah during the American attack. She's featured in the film Fallujah - Caught in the Crossfire.

Chas Davis, a conscientious objector spoke and reminded us about the tragic impact of depleted uranium used in weapons on both Iraqi's and US personnel. He described basic training as a sort of brainwashing that dehumanizes the way the troops think of Iraqi citizens - reducing them to the status of a piece of paper that needs to be destroyed.

Next was our own local Gold Star mom - Amy Branham. She spoke eloquently about the loss of her son, and the lies of the Bush Administration. Amy has honored us with comments on this blog and I hope she continues to do so. I told her how much we appreciate her input and her courage standing up against this illegal war.

After a question and answer period, we all went outside for a candlelight prayer. We stood on the sidewalk singing Singing for Our Lives.

See you in Crawford tomorrow.

Update: Here is an excellent summary from Devon Greene who captured many of the details I missed.

I just left a meeting organized by the group. Sheila Jackson Lee was the main speaker but there were several others including two military moms (who lost their sons in Iraq), a former CIA official, two veterans one of whom was in combat. They had a lot of interesting things to say and there were three good videos. One video was composed of edited/spliced shots of the usual suspects starting out saying there were WMD in Iraq and we had to get them - evolving to the usual suspects then denying knowledge of said weapons and not knowing where they were, etc. The other, more effective video was of yet another military mom talking about her meeting with Bush when her son died. Her son used the expression "Life is good." a lot. When she said that to Bush his reply was, "How can you know his life would have been good?" What sensitivity!

The former CIA official told us that although the US gov't has lied to us to get us involved in some wars before it has never gone on to the extreme it has this time or by so many of our elected leaders and for so long. He quit his job after 42 years of service with approx. 20 in the CIA. He was an analyst. He said that October of 2002 was the turning point when, after years of fighting the lies sold by the administration, Tenet finally gave in and started going along with them. He just gave up. Powell's speech to the UN, the low point of Powell's career, was written by intelligence people, not Powell, and every point in it was a lie. I just wonder how they forced Powell to give this speech.

One veteran, a woman, told us that she basically was one of six kids, from working class family and joined the military to get an education. She finally changed her mind when the war started and tried to get an honorable discharge as a C.O. but it took 2 1/2 yrs. She said virtually 90% of those cases are dismissed. There was also a video showing a demonstration at an elementary school against Tommy Franks who went there to speak to thechildren about joining the military, etc, without notifying the parents of his coming. Some showed up anyway and were blocking his car as he was trying to leave but the limo kept moving slowly even tho 2 or 3 people were standing right in front of it leaning on the hood of the vehicle. Does this show a complete disregard of life from the pro-life party? Are they trying to hook kids as young as elem age into the military life? Oh . . . and guess what, the school was in a low income, immigrant section of Los Angeles. Why didn't they go to Beverly Hills High?

One man, the Iraq Veteran against the War, said he was thrown out of a press conference for asking one question of Bush when Bush consistently ignored a woman who was trying to ask the same question. So he stepped in front of Bush and asked it and was escorted out. The question was "When are we bringing our troops home?" One young veteran said some interesting things but I think they would need to be verified. He was in Korea for 3 years and was about to be dischargedwhen he was told his contract had been extended for 30 yrs! I've heard of a couple of years extension but 30? Can they do that? He also said depleted(?) uranium was being used in Iraq (in the bullets?) and the cancer rate in Iraq had gone up 1000% and our soldiers were getting sick from it but, of course, the military and our leaders are denying it. He said the half life of dep. uran. is millions of years so that many parts of Iraq will be permanently inhabitable for a long time. However, we have built 14 military bases and several pipelines over there but nothing else. So any Americans sent over there to work on the oil pipelines will also be exposed to it. I have questions about some of his statements but can't really verify them. If anyone else has any accurate info on any of these statements please let me know. So much for rebuilding the infrastructure of Iraq.

Cong. Lee said BRAC (the group closing all the bases) may close Walter Reed Hospital - she said the nurses in the American hospitals in Germany are so overworked they're exhausted and if they close Walter Reed they don't know what they'll do. Is Bush nuts?! Shock and traumatize the country with the 9/11 event so they will give the "war president" whatever he wants, immediately try to suspend all our rights with the Patriot Act (in case we don't give him everything he wants), reward those who helped, start a war, cut the revenue, don't send enough troops, don't equip them properly, tell them it's over before it's over, cut medical benefits for them, extend their tours, close the military bases and a major hospital, then don't let the public see their flag-draped coffins in the news because it might offend the families and disturb their privacy! Are these sane decisions by a sane mind? Does anyone see a pattern here? Does anyone see a true intent here? Bankrupt the government, exhaust the military, lie to the public, take over the judiciary, ruin the schools, let the Saudis raise the price of oil so high it will virtually bankrupt a great many people and small businesses, (remember, the military runs on oil as well as food, too). When our own military is exhausted, dead, suffering from trauma, he will then have to hire mercenaries who, of course, would have no problem firing on protesting Americans because they feel nothing for us, which would effectively end all protest. The only problem I can foresee is that the whole world hates us so much I can't figure out where he'd find the mercenaries.

When asked why Bush wasn't being impeached she gave the standard but probably correct answer. The majority in both houses is Republican and they will not do it. But she did say there was talk, etc. So I guess that means there are no honest Republicans left at all in our gov't. How can they stand to let this regime represent them? There was a candle light vigil and another video on Fallujah. But although my spirit was willing the body was weak so I took it home. If you made it to this final line, you will go to Heaven if you pass this message on to 12,000,000 other people in the next 12 minutes. Thanks for reading it all the way through.

Thanks Devon!

Posted by Lyn Wall at 11:37 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Johnson-Rayburn Dinner - September 30

Guest Blogged by Leif Hatlen:

The Annual Johnson-Rayburn Dinner is the major fund raising effort for the Harris County Democratic Party. As you all know we receive no funds from the National or the State Democratic Party. All of our activities are financed by ourselves locally. We need your participation.
Our speaker this year is Colorado Senator Ken Salazar, the most senior elected Hispanic official in the United States and a Democrat. He was elected in a state that also supported George W. Bush. He is someone that we should listen to.

This year's theme is Turn Texas Blue. For more details and to purchase tickets for the September 30 event, go to http://hcdp.org/johnsonrayburn_2005dinner.html

Posted by Lyn Wall at 11:18 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Voter Registration Volunteers Needed Tuesday

I've had the privilege of registering voters who have just become citizens with the League of Women Voters several times, and it's a wonderful experience. If you are not already a voter registrar, you can be deputized on the spot Tuesday. If you can possibly help email volunteer@houstondemocrats.com and we'll put you in touch with Sam Keeper, who organizes voter registration events for the LWV.

From Sam Keeper:

Tuesday, August 30, we’ll be registering new citizens to vote immediately after the naturalization ceremony at the M. O. Campbell Education Center of the Aldine Independent School District. It’s at 1865 Aldine Bender Road, this side of Houston Intercontinental Airport. I can always use help at 7 a.m. when we distribute a League folder explaining 2005 elections. Most folks get there at about 9:30 for a refresher course on voter registration while the naturalization is going on.

Posted by Lyn Wall at 10:33 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack

August 25, 2005

Join PDiddie and Me on the Bus to Crawford Saturday!

Update: My daughter, the Diddies and I will be driving to Crawford tomorrow instead of taking the bus. We hope to see all of you there!

Here is the information on the bus to Crawford for the day Saturday. Cindy is back and Randi Rhodes will be there.

HOUSTON: Bus leave out: 7 a.m. from the parking lot on Palm St. between Fannin and Main (across from the Mann Eye Clinic and just north on Fannin from the First Unitarian Church, the hosts of our convergence location: map link here: http://www.firstuu.org/ -the church is 2 blocks south of the parking lot). This bus will carry 47 people comfortably and has undercarriage luggage compartments/a second bus will be on standby for overflow. Returning no later than 10:30 pm.

Email debstuff@hotmail.com with the number of people in your party.

If you can go, bring water and/or Electro-MIX or Emergen-C which are made by Alcer and are a sort of instant Gatorade type drink to donate. They can be found at Walgreen's and Whole Foods and probably other places.

Be there!

Posted by Lyn Wall at 05:21 PM | Permalink | Comments (4) | TrackBack

August 24, 2005

Report on I45 Town Hall Meeting

Guest Blogged by Phillip McNutt:

On Saturday, August 13th I joined over 800 concerned fellow Houstonians and the I-45 Coalition for what proved to be an informative and productive afternoon. The dialogue followed the proposed TXDOT plans for expansion of the North I-45 corridor into downtown Houston.

The meeting, which lasted several hours, captivated the "standing room only" audience's attention. Folks actually stayed for the duration of the lengthy gathering!

Challenges to TXDOT by several of our area's elected Democratic officials were met with applause and approvals from a very demonstrative audience. Please be sure to note the heavily Democratic contingency of elected officials that actually ATTENDED and PARTICIPATED in the discussion found in Jim Weston's recap of this meeting.

Apparently, this meeting MADE A DIFFERENCE! I came away from this experience with a renewed faith in local coalition efforts.

Hello I-45 Coalition Members ~

I wanted to give you a status report and update on the Town Hall meeting that was held on Saturday, August 13th at Jeff Davis High School by the I-45 Coalition.

It was a great meeting! We had a terrific showing of about 800+ neighbors and a lot of elected representatives too! In attendance, in person were Congress persons Sheila Jackson Lee and Gene Green; Texas Representatives Jessica Farrar and Garnet Coleman; Harris County Commissioner Sylvia Garcia; Council Members Adrian Garcia and Gordon Quan and Alan Clark, Director of Transportation for Houston-Galveston Area Council (H-GAC). From the City of Houston, Mr. Mike Marcotte, Director of Public Works & Engineering also attended. Plus we had representatives from Senator Kay Bailey Hutchinson, Congressman John Culberson, Senator John Whitmire, Harris County Commissioner El Franco Lee and Council Member Shelley Sekula-Gibbs in attendance.

Tx-DOT presented their just completed draft study to the audience and then John Wilson, a Woodland Heights resident and member of the Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) for H-GAC detailed concerns that we had within the study. A brief presentation of the tunnel alternative was shown followed with questions from the audience to both TxDOT and the elected officials.

If you would like to read the Tx-DOT study yourself, it can be found at the H-GAC website at:

http://www.h-gac.com/HGAC/Departments/Transportation/Mobility_Studies.htm then scroll down to North Hardy Corridor Study.

In a very abbreviated nutshell – the Study recommends, for the section from I-10 to 610 – 4 lanes North, 4 lanes South (which we already have) and 4 managed lanes in the middle. This plus eight (8) shoulder lanes brings the highway up to an “equivalent” of 20 lanes. This is exactly the same lane configuration as what Tx-DOT is building now on I-10! The study doesn’t even address access roads either! Tx-DOT has not determined where these 12 traffic lanes (plus access roads) might go ~ that’s to be done in the next phase.

Our major concerns are:

1) Cost of project – in the study, TxDOT estimates cost at $404 million or $13.5 million a mile. Current costs for I-10 are in excess of $100 million a mile! There is no substantiation for their $404 million estimate.

2) Study doesn’t consider effect of improving side roads (arterial roads) on traffic on I-45

3) Study doesn’t talk about Right-of-Way (ROW) demands – other than say they will try to take “little or no ROW” – they don’t address it…again, they say that is in the next phase

4) Study has not been presented to the public since it’s completion– there is no consensus from the public that this is a good plan and

So what happened?

TxDOT has already made a few changes in their plans:

1st change – TxDOT’s original plan was to submit their “just completed” draft plan/study to the Transportation Policy Committee (TPC) at H-GAC in August for their approval and proceed to the next phase, which will be Schematic Drawings and Environmental Studies. On August 4th, I was notified that the final presentation to the TPC was delayed until the September meeting. At the meeting on the 13th, we learned from Mr. Clark that the final presentation is now delayed until further notice – it is not scheduled to be presented to the TPC at all. At this point in the meeting, Congresswoman Jackson Lee asked that when this study is ready to come before the TPC, that her office and ALL the elected officials in the room, as well as the I-45 Coalition, be notified. That’s good!

2nd change – I learned at a meeting on July 19, 2005 – that none of the petitions (over 100 petition pages with each page having up to 15 names) that the I-45 collected from people in the neighborhood, were accepted as part of the study, despite our understanding that they were going to be part of the record. The reason was that the Public Comment period closed 10 days after the last public meeting (which was on October 28, 2004) – so the public comment period was closed by the 1st week of November 2004 !

At the meeting on the 13th, we learned from TxDOT, that they will accept those names, comments and petitions and will include them into the official project record. Not only from all the previous meetings that had been held, but also including the meeting on the 13th! That’s good too!

3rd possible change – Members of the I-45 Coalition spoke before City Council on August 9th and we voiced our concern regarding the Tx-DOT Study. The Mayor and several Council members shared our concern and it was suggested that a comprehensive mobility study might be something to look into. Normally, the City doesn’t get real involved with highway projects ..even when they go right thru the heart of the City … but it might appear that there could be some movement to the benefits of coordinating projects & improvements. That’s good also!

So what’s next?

Contact your elected officials! Let them know that we want a good plan – a plan that will not destroy our neighborhoods and won’t affect the standard of living of the people living in the inner city. We have attached a list of public officials, their contact info and a sample letter of some of the points you might make.

If you feel that the tunnel might be a viable alternative to the ever increasing concrete highway – push for the funding of a feasibility study for the tunnel.

The important thing – is to be involved! – nothing can take the place of a few hundred letters (or many hundred), phone calls, & e-mails from voters requesting that their elected representatives represent them in this critical matter!

We are extremely fortunate to have several representatives that are listening to us – but it is up to you – to tell them what you want them to do! The I-45 Coalition will continue to do the homework, to organize meetings, to get the representatives the information they need to get the job done – but it is up to you to be engaged in the conversation and stay with it.

This is and will be a long process – we are probably 3 to 5 years from a final design, and then another 3 to 7 years or more for construction. The bureaucracy will try to wear us done – they are forever – but this is our city, our homes and our neighborhoods – and all of that is worth fighting for!

We are making progress – they are listening! We all have to work together to get the City and neighborhood that we want!

Our 3 main points still remain:

1) All improvements must remain within existing Right of Way (no taking of additional Property)

2) Alternative transportation modes and methods must be investigated

3) Quality-of-Life Issues of Residents & Neighborhoods must not be affected (air quality, noise, flooding, increased traffic in neighborhood, etc.)

Thanks for being involved.

Jim Weston

Chairman

I-45 Coalition

Posted by Lyn Wall at 07:21 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Texans Concerned About Job Security

The Texas Employment Report, which was conducted by Harris Interactive on behalf of Spherion Corp. (NYSE: SFN), found that overall confidence of adult workers in Texas declined to 57.2 percent in July, down two points from June.

Also, the number of Texas workers who doubt their jobs will be eliminated in the next 12 months was 73 percent, down from 76 percent from June and 81 percent in May.

"Despite sustained growth in core Texas industries like energy, oil, and gas, employees across the spectrum are still wary, particularly when it comes to job availability and the strength of the national economy," says Julie Van Wormer, group vice president of Spherion in Texas. "... In our own staffing business, we are seeing an increase in direct hire requests for workers in a wide range of positions and industries, especially in information technology, energy and accounting and finance."

LINK

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Judges Are Supposed to Make Law; That's Their Job

But every laywer knows that judges make law - it's their job. In fact, law students learn in the first semester that almost all tort law (governing accidental injuries), contract law and property law are made by judges. Legislatures did not create these rules; judges did, and they continue to do so when they revise the rules over time.

Indeed, one of the most fundamental doctrines of American law - the authority of courts to declare laws unconstitutional - is entirely made by judges. Nowhere does the text of the Constitution mention the power of judicial review, and it may fairly be debated whether the framers of the Constitution intended to create such a power.

For example, more than 60 years ago, the court considered an Oklahoma law that required the sterilization of anyone convicted twice of a felony involving moral turpitude (in that case, the crime was robbery). The court held that the law did not provide equal protection and added that forced sterilization was unconstitutional because the right to procreate is a fundamental aspect of the liberty protected by the Constitution. The justices were "making" the law.


Likewise, in the landmark decision of Brown v. Board of Education, the justices "made" the law in deciding that the equal protection clause prohibited racial segregation in schools and in overruling the infamous decision of Plessy v. Ferguson, which had held the opposite.


Edwin Chemerinsky was one of this article’s authors.  For those of of you who are unfamiliar with him, he wrote a book called Constitutional Law.  This is one of the textbooks law professors use to teach Con Law, and the textbook used in my Con Law course.  I still have it and have used it more than I thought.  Chemerinsky taught the Con Law section of my bar review course.  He’s a Con Law expert.  Basically all he does is read Constitutional law cases.

The whole argument against “activist judges” usually boils down to “we don’t agree with your decision.” Roe v Wade is a classic example, as is Griswald v. Connecticut which declared unconstitutional a Connecticut statute that prevented pharmacies from selling birth control.  There is no specifically enumerated right in the Constitution to sell contraceptives.  However, the court ruled (essentially) that everybody has autonomy over their reproductive rights.  

What the right really wants is to hold judges in check when they attain an electoral victory that is unconstitutional.  One of the arguments the right often uses is “the will of the people voted for this statute; therefore a judge should overturn it” – or something to that effect.  What the right fails to realize is a majority of Americans can have an unconstitutional opinion.  For example, the case Loving v. Virginia ruled unconstitutional a Virginia law forbidding interracial marriage.  This Court decided this case in the mid-late 1960s.  A Gallup poll of the South from 1965 discovered a majority of Southerners were for a legal prohibition on interracial marriage.  According to the rights political thinking, this statute was fine because a majority of people supported it.

A great current example is gay marriage.  There are strong Constitutional arguments against these statutes – one based on equal protection and one based on fundamental rights.  I have no idea how a court would rule on these amendments or initiatives.  But the point is a good Constitutional lawyer could make a solid argument they are unconstitutional and sway a judge on the issue.  The right desperately wants to prevent this from happening, probably because they (hopefully) know at some level their initiatives are unconstitutional.

Chemerinsky is also dead-on accurate about common law being judge made.  Tort and Contract law are essentially derived almost entirely from judicial opinions.  For example, there is a string of tort cases dealing with proximate causation (a concept in tort law).  Every law student reads these cases (remember the Palsgraff case?) because they are the root of that particular tort concept. And I have yet to hear any complaints about those concepts.  They are now ingrained in negligence law.  And no one is complaining about those concepts.

In other words, this whole activist judges concept is a great marketing phrase, but nothing more.  It is not grounded in any understanding of legal history.  It is nothing more than another right wing canard, disguised as valid theory.
Link

Posted by Hale Stewart at 12:25 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Coming out swinging

As the situation in Iraq deteriorates almost as quickly as the price of gas rises and the President's poll numbers fall, two of the Texas Democratic candidates yesterday broadsided their GOP incumbent opponents for their respective failings.

David Van Os writes under the headline "Yearning to Breathe Free"(emphasis mine):

An August 22 story in the Austin American-Statesman describes the plight of immigrant workers who perform some of the most laborious jobs in our economy yet have difficulty obtaining the pay they have earned for their work. (“The power of shame pays off; public vigil helps migrants claim money owed to them,” Austin American-Statesman, Asher Price, 8-22-05; link above req. reg.)

Under state law the Texas Attorney General has the power to come down hard against unscrupulous employers who exploit low-wage immigrant workers by refusing to pay such workers for work they have performed. Suits by the Attorney General to obtain injunctions and to assess the stiff monetary penalties provided by Texas payday laws would quickly get the attention of employers who unlawfully refuse to pay their workers and would deter other employers from similar conduct.

The immortal words on our Statue of Liberty proclaim, “Give me your huddled masses, yearning to breathe free.” We are mostly a nation of immigrants who came and whose ancestors came to this land fleeing injustice and seeking the breath of liberty. The exceptions, such as those who are descended from victims of the African slave trade and those whose ancestors were incorporated into the nation under the 1848 Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo, nevertheless often take lead positions in our nation’s pursuit of freedom and justice for all. No human being can “breathe free” if unable to purchase the necessities of life as a result of laboring without just compensation. The 13th Amendment of the United States Constitution is uncompromising in its permanent prohibition of involuntary servitude as a fundamental value of the American social covenant.

The Texas Legislature meant what it said when it enacted laws against non-payment of wages with stern penalties assessable through suit by the Attorney General. While the current Republican Attorney General politically grandstands over a Ten Commandments monument on the State Capitol Grounds, he ignores the biblical injunction that "You shall not withhold the wages of poor and needy laborers.” The Republican Attorney General should move quickly on this issue, but he will not do so because it would interfere with the immigrant-bashing philosophy of his radical political base. It is a terrible shame that enforcement of the laws of Texas on behalf of the working poor will have to wait until I am sworn in as Attorney General in January 2007; but when that time comes, enforcement will arrive swiftly and aggressively on behalf of not only immigrants but all Texas workers, regardless of background or status, who are victimized by such unjust and unscrupulous labor practices.

And then Barbara Radnofsky smacks down KBH with this:

Recent news reports showed that Senator Hutchison has abandoned the issues on which she based her announcement to seek re-election, choosing to focus on three issues our campaign identified: veterans' affairs, education, and health care. She has crawfished on a variety of issues our campaign raised.

* She has flip-flopped on veterans affairs after a series of speeches and press releases from our campaign, and has finally called for a VA Hospital south of San Antonio, after months of my campaigning for such a facility.

* She has flip-flopped after her abandonment of her Constitutional obligation of Advise and Consent, and is now calling for Senate vetting of Supreme Court appointees, after her prompt rubberstamping of the President's nomination and her immediate call on her colleagues to ensure the nomination.

* She wrongly claims to be supportive of health care when in fact she voted against the bipartisan Bingaman-Smith amendment that restored Medicaid funding cut from Texas. After the last eleven years of rubberstamping and failed leadership, Texas now leads the nation in percentage of uninsured children and adults. She now parrots our campaigns call for insurance reform. We call on her to echo our call for prompt pay and preventive care.

* She wrongly claims to support education, while on her watch Texas has achieved the lowest high school graduation rate in the U.S. We call on her to echo our recommendations for mediation and full funding for grants for higher education.

* She has proudly touted her role in passage of the transportation bill. We call on her to concede that the transportation formulas in the bill that she rubberstamped have harmed Texans, sending our hard-earned Texas dollars out of state so that we can build needless construction projects in Alaska.


It sure will be nice to have real leaders in Austin and Washington for a change, won't it?

Posted by Guest Blogger PDiddie at 05:20 AM | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBack

August 23, 2005

Those Who Harbor Terrorists

The GW Bush doctrine of preventive war provides all the reasons that Hugo Chavez and Venezuela need to attack, invade, and occupy Virginia. (Note: I specify the "GW Bush doctrine" to distinguish it from the prior GHW Bush doctrine that it would be insane to get bogged down in a military occupation of Iraq).

For, although Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld has denounced the Reverand Pat Robertson's call for the political murder of Hugo Chavez at least as vociferously as the Taliban government denounced the attacks of 9/11, it's pretty clear to me that the United States would not be willing to turn Robertson over to Venezuelan authorities.

But, you may be thinking, Pat Robertson has only made a terroristic threat against the sovereign government of Venezuela by advocating the murder of Hugo Chavez--he didn't actually carry out those threats. Here's the evidence Colin Powell would start off with:

Christian broadcaster Pat Robertson caused heartburn in Washington and consternation in Latin America on Tuesday in calling for the assassination of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez.

"I think we really ought to go ahead and do it. It's a whole lot cheaper than starting a war," Robertson said during Monday evening's broadcast of "The 700 Club," his Christian news-talk television show. "We have the ability to take him out, and I think the time has come that we exercise that ability."

But why should Venezuela sit around and wait to respond after the terrorists have struck? That would be madness. Any sane application of President Bush's doctrine of preventive wars against states that harbor potential terrorists would thoroughly justify Venezuela attacking Virginia.

I mean, shoot, for all we know, Robertson could be harboring weapons of mass destruction right now. You can be damn sure he's not gonna allow any UN weapons inspectors onto his 700 Club compound. And just because there's no evidence that Robertson has an active WMD program, doesn't mean you can prove he hasn't got them. Her certainly has a history both of consorting with brutal dictators (such as Liberia's Charles Taylor) and of threatening to bring massive destruction on his neighbors with secret weapons--like that time he tried to pray a hurricane into destroying Massachusetts.

Robertson represents a truly unique and dangerous threat to world peace. If Venezuela's allies will not stand by her in this darkest hour, she has every right still to go it alone and secure its democracy from this threat.

Someone please prove me wrong in this. I personally don't have a lot of regard for Mr Chavez--he's a screwloose egomaniac tanking his country's economy in the guise of social reform. He actively undermines his own country's democratic traditions while playing economic footsie with the Saudis. Hmmm, why does this all sound so familiar?

Still, like him or not, Chavez is a duly elected president of a sovereign country. When you issue threats against his life, you've got to be breaking some law. At the very least, Chavez would be fully justified in dispatching his armed forces to take this religious extremist, terror-mongering, dictator-coddling bandit out of the picture. Mr Bush provided the precedent for this in 2003. And now freedom's on the march.

Posted by Bucky at 09:30 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Order us a gross of these, please

President George W. Bush said Tuesday that anti-war protesters such as Cindy Sheehan, who want U.S. troops brought home immediately, are "advocating a policy that would weaken the United States."

(That rumbling sound you hear? It's the Republican Smear Machine gearing up to spew this new slime.)

Posted by Guest Blogger PDiddie at 06:17 PM |