Houston Democrats

Rubin gained a great deal of prestige during the late 1990s when he presided over the Treasury Department and was the main architect of the Clinton Administration's economic policy. He served as Treasury Secretary from 1995 to 1999, and was formerly co-chairman of Goldman Sachs.

Rubins primary caution was that Democrats should avoid arguing over specifics with Republicans before the President has even laid out his own detailed plan for reforming Social Security. He said that Democrats should focus the debate on principles, especially framing it in opposition to additional deficit spending.

Rubin stated:

Putting out a Democrat plan on Social Security would be a horrible mistake because right now it's the president's principles against our principles.

An aide said:

From a political standpoint, he said, hold firm because your have a difference in prinicples; their principle is a privatization plan, ours is not to add to the deficit, and there's not a whole lot of room for compromise.

The main argument for not forming an alternative Democratic plan is that it would be essentially committing political suicide due to the fact that the playing field is highly skewed in favor of the Republicans. Republicans can wield a great degree of power that results from the coordination among the White House, the Senate, and the House that in turn would allow Republicans to influence any negotiation process. As long as Republicans remain committed to the creation of private or personal accounts this situation would most likely result in a detrimental result to Social Security.

While Rubin warned not to engage Republicans on specifics at the moment, he did say that a solution to Social Security reform will require bipartisan cooperation.

In criticism of Bush, Rubin said:

I haven't ever heard a bond marketer talk about savings 50 years out.

Meanwhile Bush is still high on Rose Garden Optimism. He maintains that his plan to restructure Social Security will improve it's longterm stability while not endangering the income of older Americans. However, he has already stated that if you were born before 1950, that there is nothing to worry about, and implicitly to everyone else: "retire at your own risk."

But he's got the unbeatble plan:

My strategy is pretty simple: Explain the problem to the American people, and keep explaining it and explaining it, and assuring seniors that you're going to get your check.

Personally, I think most people have made up their minds, any amount of repitition is not going to help Bush at this point. Another fact that runs against Bush, is that there are fewer people above age 50 that supposedly have nothing to worry about than there are below that age. A major "problem" for the administration is that the baby boom generation is just reaching retirement age, and they are justifiably worried about their retirments. I feel a certain amount of satisfaction that Bush has spent about three months campaigning for his "reform" plan, and has made no significant gains, and in fact, seen a drop in popularity.

Sorry Bush, but the public still isn't buying it.

Currently Social Security ranks as the third most important economic policy issue. Medicare reform ranks first, and deficit reduction comes in second. The most recent ABC/Washington Post poll (June 2-5) shows Bush's approval of handling Social Security at just 34%, disapproval is at 62% (a 7% increase since January). It also appears that Bush has lost even more ground by taking a risk by promoting reduction in guranteed benefits for everyone but the poorest Americans. The Washington Post also has the poll in pdf form.

Only 48% support some form of voluntary plan to invest a portion of their contribution to Social Security in the stock market. 49% reject private accounts altogether, a 5% increase since mid-December. If one combines personal accounts with reduction of future benefits, support for personal accounts falls to a meager 27%.

Across political groups, only a minority believe Bush's plan would improve the financial viability of Social Security. 63% of Republicans, 85% of Demcorats, and 72% of Independents believe Bush's plant would put Social Security in a more dire fiscal situation.

The only group in which Bush is making headway, is among Americans under 30. Among this age group, 71% support some form of private investment accounts. (I'm definitely not one of that 71%).

Thanks to Jon B. for pointing out the articles on Robert Rubin.

The articles:

Talking Points Memo (May 26, 2005)

The Hill, "Rubin urges Democrats not to reveal their hand" (June 1, 2005)

The Washington Post, "Poll Shows Public Is Skeptical on Social Security Plan" (June 8, 2005)