Houston Democrats

Other presidents had approval ratings well above 50% by March of the beginning of their second term. Currently, Bush’s approval rating is 45%.

Here are the ratings for presidents as recorded by Gallup in the March following their re-election:

Truman, 1949: 57%; Eisenhower, 1957: 65%; Johnson, 1965: 69%; Nixon, 1973: 57%; Reagan, 1985: 56%; Clinton, 1997: 59%; Bush, 2005: 45%

It is disappointing that Bush was re-elected when it now appears that the public’s approval is now swinging fairly strongly against him. The final presidential election results gave Bush 51% and Kerry 48%. Assuming that the Gallup poll is relatively accurate and comparable to the 2004 election results that means about 7% of eligible voters may be open for swinging to the Democrats (the difference between the 55% disapprove of Bush and Kerry’s 48% of the presidential vote).

Additionally, a CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll finds that 59% of those polled are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the country.

On the issue of Social Security, a poll conducted by Time finds that 58% disapprove of Bush’s handling of Social Security (31% approve). Similarly, the ABC News/Washington Post poll finds 56% disapprove of the President’s proposal for Social Security (35% approve). Furthermore, a Newsweek poll finds 44% trust Democrats in Congress more than Bush (33%) to reform Social Security.

The situation in Iraq:

Time Poll: 44% approve, 52% disapprove
Newsweek: 41% approve, 54% disapprove
ABC News/Washington Post: 39% approve, 57% disapprove

Additionally the ABC News/Washington Post poll finds that a majority, 53%, believe the Iraq war was not worth fighting, compared to 45% that do. The same poll also found that 57% believe the Bush administration does not have a clear plan for handling the situation in Iraq.

I realize that these are just numbers, and we all know what the polls were saying prior to the 2004 presidential election, many of which put Kerry ahead. However, I believe that Democrats have a significant chance this time, upon which we must capitalize.

In order to do so, I think it will take something similar to the 1994 Republican takeover of Congress. The Democratic Party now needs to be the party of reform and anti-Washington-insider politics. To some extent the Democratic Party may need to reconsider some of the issues it believes most important, especially how it talks about them.

Additionally, Democrats need to address the image of appearing to just being the opposition. I think what Bush wants to do with Social Security is wrong and that he should come out with the details of his plan. However, I also believe it would help Democrats to develop some proposal of their own to promote.

That way Democrats could say:

Here's what the President wants to do.
This is why his solution will not work and is going to hurt you.
This is what Democrats propose to do in order to solve the problem to help you.
Please support us.

I think we understand that Democrats don't intend to only block everything Republicans put forward and that Democrats do have proposals of their own. However, for those who may be unsure about who to support, that elusive 7%, I think the image of Democrats may suffer somewhat. The Democratic Party is going to have to appeal to Independents and Republicans in order to regain control. That will not mean the Party must scrap its beliefs, but it will mean redefining them in a way that shows how Democratic values are not just for Democrats.

The Harris County Democratic Party is interested in your ideas and opinions.

If you are interested in working on the Communications and Message Working Group for the HCDP and providing your input on the values the Democratic Party should promote as well as how it can better appeal to the common person, come to the first meeting of the working group this Thursday (April 7) at 6pm. It will take place at HCDP Headquarters located at 1445 North Loop West, Suite 110, Houston, TX 77008. Visit www.hcdp.org for a map.

All polling information came from www.pollingreport.com.